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Post by Fantasy Box Office on Sept 19, 2006 22:19:42 GMT -5
Coming out this weekend: Jackass 2 (3000+ theatres), Flyboys (2000+ theatres), All the Kings Men (1200+ theatres), and Jet Li's fearless.
Competition: second weekend of Gridiron Gang.
What are your predics?
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Post by permatiltx on Sept 21, 2006 16:47:47 GMT -5
Who would've thought that we would have to turn to Bam Magera and Johnny Knoxville to save the box office, but here we are...
Four years after the first Jackass movie surprised everyone, now, we get the second one which is pretty much review proof...right now, you are either going to see it or not, no matter what the reviews say...of course, now, the movie isn't going to surprise the box office community like before...with a strong 3000+ theater count which is larger than the original it should produce slightly better numbers than the original...Let's say $24M, that seems about right...and it should put a little life into a pretty dead September...
Jet Li returns, and he's usually good for a $5,000 per theater average...He has plenty of American fans, where Hero performed very well two years ago...Fearless should also perform well with a decent PTA, however, it isn't getting as many theaters as it should...still expect the Jet Li faithful (which I'm a part of) to elevate this to a solid $9M start...
Flyboys, despite big effects and a sprawling epic look, just doesn't interest me at all, and I don't think I'm alone on this one...MGM is dumping this one on us, so despite its 2000 theater count, I can't see it doing any spectacular business...most people I know haven't even heard of it...so, with that in mind, expect $7M to start...
All the King's Men is set to be a massive failure...the reviews are horrible, the marketing just as bad...what went wrong here...rumor has it that it was booed in Toronto...not the reception it wanted...with a low 1500 theater count, I'm expecting a huge bomb to start, say to the tune of a disastrous $4M...
Gridiron Gang will take a steep hit...especially since Jackass 2 is getting the guy quotient that Gridiron Gang needs...I don't know how the word of mouth is going on this one, but I definitely did not enjoy the movie...I see a 50% decrease at least, bringing in around $7.5M
The Black Dahlia also didn't light the screens on fire, but may not take too big a hit...still with a 40% drop or so, I see $6.5M for the weekend...
And the top ten should be, but don't quote me...
1. Jackass Number Two - $23.8M
2. Jet Li's Fearless - $9.2M
3. Gridiron Gang - $7.6M
4. Flyboys - $7.2M
5. The Black Dahlia - $6.6M
6. All the King's Men - $4.5M
7. Everyone's Hero - $3.6M
8. The Illusionist - $2.9M
9. The Last Kiss - $2.7M
10. Invincible - $2.6M
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Post by Fantasy Box Office on Sept 21, 2006 19:51:51 GMT -5
I love your analysis'. Thanks for that!
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Post by Charles Productions on Sept 24, 2006 1:48:00 GMT -5
Even though I hate the fact that Jackass 2 had to save the box office, I'm so glad it did well this weekend, even though its Friday is probably frontloaded. It shows hope that it was just the usual September slump rather than another drop in moviegoers.
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